
St. Louis Cardinals second baseman Nolan Gorman (16) swings and misses in the 4th inning during a game against the Atlanta Braves at Busch Stadium in St. Louis on Wednesday, June 26, 2024.
Even Rob Deer would probably be offended by the Rob Deer comp.
For decades, when it came to guys who homered and struck out with obscene frequency, Deer was often the reference.
But Deer never struck out at the rate Nolan Gorman is.
Actually, in a full-length season, no one has.
It’s extraordinary. The Cardinals slugger entered Wednesday with a 37.8% strikeout rate. Only two players in baseball history — yes, history — have had a higher ... but consider those both happened in the 60-game season of 2020 (Minnesota’s Miguel Sano at 43.9% and Seattle’s Evan White at 41.6%).
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The highest strikeout percentage in a regular-length season? It was 37.2% by Baltimore’s Chris Davis in 2017.
So by chasing pitches, Gorman is chasing history.
Look, I’m not giving up on Gorman overall. He is only 24. He’s a lefty bat who can hit for power — that has huge value in Major League Baseball. So there is still hope that maybe Gorman can be, say, a . But right now, in 2024, he’s mired in mediocrity.
The whole thing is frustrating. But credit manager Oliver Marmol for sitting Gorman for stretches, even though there is temptation to send him up there, considering Gorman has enough pop to share the team lead in homers (19). But entering Wednesday, Marmol started Gorman in just three of the previous 10 games. On Wednesday, against a righty, Marmol started the lefty Gorman — but stashed him in the eighth spot.
With the trade deadline addition of Tommy Pham, that allowed Marmol to often move Brendan Donovan from the outfield to Gorman’s spot at second base.
To use an old Tony La Russa line, Gorman is “tied for first†for most disappointing season by a 2024 Cardinal, along with Paul Goldschmidt and Jordan Walker.
“He’s gone through a couple different adjustments,†Marmol said Monday. “Some of it with his (swing) path, some of it with his lower half, as far as with that leg kick hanging a little more to recognize pitches. So there’s not one thing where I can say this is the difference of positive or negative. It’s just — he’s working through some things.
“And there have been stretches where he feels really good about it. And you think of that Washington series where he was kind of staying on the ball, left on left and against some righties did some things. And then there have been times where he’s feeling good and doesn’t get results. And then there’s been times where he just does not feel good about where he’s at with his swing. So it’s varied, and he’s continuing to work through it.â€
Since the day he was drafted — incidentally, Gorman was the first player born in the 2000s to be picked by an MLB team — we knew he’d hit homers but strike out a bunch. Well, in 2023, Gorman had 464 plate appearances for St. Louis — he hit 27 homers with 148 strikeouts. So the HR rate was 5.8% and the K rate was 31.9%. Acceptable. But this year, in 376 plate appearances, he entered Wednesday with 19 homers (5.1%) and 142 strikeouts (37.8%).
Asked if there’s a strikeout rate the Cards need Gorman to be at, Marmol said Monday: “There’s not a number that I’m going to say, ‘I’d like him to be under X percent,’ other than just longer stretches where he feels good about how he’s getting to the baseball. And we’ve been in and out of that this year.
“My hope is that we get back on track. He has been feeling good as of late — we’ve had a stretch of lefties that just aren’t favorable for getting him in there, which is hard if you’re in his shoes, from a timing and rhythm standpoint, if you’re not in there every day. So that’s what makes it difficult as well.â€
Gorman’s batting average to start Wednesday was — to reference yet another 1970s and ’80s player — at “The Mendoza Line†of .200. Gorman entered Wednesday with three homers since June 20.
He strikes out often on — well, every kind of pitch but notably on pitches low and inside and in the top corners of the strike zone.
Defensively, Gorman has shown some improvement in some facets, but overall, he rates poorly as a second baseman. Per Baseball Savant, his range/outs above average is in just the fourth percentile (minus-seven). Last year, he was in the 25th percentile at minus-two.
Again, they’re handling this disaster of a season as best as they can. First, they moved him down in the lineup. Now, he’s often out of it. But no, they shouldn’t send him to the minors — his bat is too valuable as a pinch hitter. But not valuable enough, this season anyway, to start pivotal ballgames against southpaws.
As for Davis in 2017, his numbers looked a lot like Gorman’s numbers this year. But two things: First, his walk rate was about three percentage points higher. Second, Davis was a $23 million player on a sub-.500 team, so they were going to leave him in the lineup.
The 2024 Cardinals are desperately trying to make the playoffs. They must make short-term decisions that better their chances. And right now, anyway, that means reining in their reigning home run leader.